A Modeling Study Recurrent Tuberculosis Towards End TB Strategy — China情欲印象写真， 2025–2035

Tao Li1，2，3，4; Xin Du2; Zhongwei Jia4，5，6#; 情欲印象写真Yanlin Zhao2，3#

1 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics， School of Public Health， Peking University， Beijing， China.

2 Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Beijing， China.

3 National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for infectious Diseases， Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Beijing， China.

4 Center for Intelligent Public Health， Institute for Artificial Intelligence， Peking University， Beijing， China.

5 Department of Global Health， School of Public Health， Peking University， Beijing， China.

6 Center for Drug Abuse Control and Prevention， National Institute of Health Data Science， Peking University， Beijing， China.

# Corresponding authors: Zhongwei Jia， urchinjj@163.com; Yanlin Zhao， zhaoyl@chinacdc.cn.

 

The global challenge of TB recurrence after successful treatment persists， despite national TB programs primarily focusing on patient detection and management of treatment. These programs often overlook the need for follow-up and intervention post-treatment. Although the incidence of TB in China has been steadily declining， significant efforts are still required to achieve the END-TB targets. This study utilizes a transmission dynamic model to evaluate the impact of various control strategies on accelerating TB elimination in China. Under the current strategies， TB incidence rates in China are projected to decrease to 44.9 per 100，000 by 2030 and to 40.4 per 100，000 by 2035. Introducing post-recovery interventions to prevent recurrence， along with providing TB preventive treatment (TPT) to 30% of individuals with latent TB infection (LTBI) starting in 2025， and increasing LTBI TPT coverage to 90% beginning in 2031， will contribute to achieving the milestones of the End TB Strategy by 2030 and the 2035 target.

 

迈向“闭幕结核病计谋”的结核病复发模子商讨 — 中国，2025–2035年

李涛1，2，3，4；杜昕2；贾忠伟4，5，6#；赵雁林2，3#;

1北京大学专家卫生学院流行病与卫生统计系，北京，中国；

2中国疾病防护约束中心，北京，中国；

3中国疾病防护约束中心传染病溯源预警与智能有商量宇宙要点履行室形势，北京，中国；

4北京大学东谈主工智能商讨院明智公众健康商讨中心，北京，中国；

5北京大学专家卫生学院全球卫生系，北京，中国；

6北京大学健康医疗大数据国度商讨院药物蹧跶防控中心，北京，中国。

#通信作家：贾仲伟，urchinjj@163.com；赵雁林，zhaoyl@chinacdc.cn。

 

国度结核病商量主要侧重于患者发现和诊治处理，得手诊治后结核病复发的全球挑战抓续存在。这些商量经常冷漠了诊治后随访和搅扰的必要性。尽管中国的结核发病率一直在稳步着落，但仍需要作念出紧要奋力来齐全END-TB看法。本商讨诈骗传播动态模子评估了各式防控策略对加速中国结核病排斥的影响。字据现在的策略时势，到2030年，中国的结核发病率掂量将降至44.9/10万，到2035年将降至40.4/10万。若是引入康复后搅扰时势以防护复发，加上从2025年驱动为30%的结核病遮盖感染者提供结核防护性诊治，而且从2031年驱动将遮盖感染防护性诊治的笼罩率提高到90%，将有助于到2030年和2035年分裂齐全“闭幕结核病计谋”的里程碑和最终看法。

For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2024.189

 

 

Effectiveness of C-Reactive Protein as a Tuberculosis Screening Test Among HIV-Infected Individuals — Shanghai， China， 2021–2023

Lixin Rao1; Zheyuan Wu1; Jing Chen1; Zhen Ning1; Xin Shen1#

1. Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Shanghai， China

# Corresponding author: Xin Shen， shenxin@scdc.sh.cn.

 

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended the inclusion of the C-reactive protein (CRP) test in active tuberculosis (ATB) screening algorithms among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals. The performance of the CRP test in African regions has been well-documented. This study analyzed data from a big data platform of Shanghai medical records together with infectious disease surveillance systems. We simulated a screening and plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve comparing all participants and people living with HIV (PLHIV) which gives the optimal cut-off value of 11.115 mg/L， with sensitivity of 0.784 and specificity of 0.723 in PLHIV. We obtained a promising perspective on screening for tuberculosis in PLHIV using the CRP test in Shanghai. Our study offers an original standpoint for following research.

 

淫人阁

C-反映卵白检测行动HIV感染者中结核筛查技能的后果评价 — 上海，中国，2021-2023年

饶立歆1；吴哲渊1；陈静1；宁镇1；沈鑫1#

1.上海市疾病防护约束中心，上海，中国

#通信作家：沈鑫，shenxin@scdc.sh.cn。

 

世界卫生组织（WHO）保举将C-反映卵白（CRP）检测纳入针对HIV感染东谈主群的行为性肺结核筛查策略。CRP筛查结核病的后果已在非洲地区东谈主群中获取充分考证。本商讨诈骗上海市医疗卫生大数据平台和疾病监测数据，抽取并分析结核病患者、HIV感染者与TB/HIV双感患者诊治前CRP检查扫尾与结核发病的关系，模拟筛查的受试者责任特征（ROC）弧线并贪图弧线底下积（AUC），得出在HIV感染者中诈骗CRP检测筛查行为性结核的后果优于一般东谈主群，筛查最好阈值为11.115mg/L，灵敏度为0.784，特异度为0.723。本商讨扫尾将为后续商讨提供基础。

For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2024.190

 

 

Evaluation of Latent Tuberculosis Infection Using the ESAT6-CFP10 Skin Test Among International Freshmen With Diverse Skin Tones at a University — Nanjing City， Jiangsu Province， China， September 2023

Peng Lu1，2*， Rong Wang3*， Jingjing Xu2， Jianming Wang2， Fangfang Du4， Guozhi Wang5， Shiming Cheng4#， Limei Zhu1#

1. Department of Chronic Communicable Disease， Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Nanjing City， Jiangsu Province， China

2. Department of Epidemiology， School of Public Health， Nanjing Medical University， Nanjing City， Jiangsu Province， China

3. Nanjing City Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Nanjing City， Jiangsu Province， China

4. Chinese Antituberculosis Association， Beijing， China

5. National Institutes for Food and Drug Control， Beijing， China

*Joint first authors.

#Corresponding author: Limei Zhu， lilyam0921@163.com; Shiming Cheng， smcheng@163.com.

 

Newer skin tests， including the ESAT6-CFP10 (EC) skin test， were recommended for diagnosing Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) infection. However， no data exist assessing the diagnostic performance of the EC skin test among foreign students with different skin tones. A cohort study at Nanjing Medical University screened incoming foreign freshmen. The EC skin test was used to assess for M. tb infection， and results were read at 24， 48， 72， and 96-hours post-administration. Among 96 participants， M. tb infection rates at 24， 48， 72， and 96-hours post-injection were 3.13%， 7.29%， 13.54%， and 9.38%， respectively. While infection rates were lower among individuals with darker skin tones， the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.186)， and variations were consistent across different measurement times. Trajectory analysis revealed 5.3% in the continuous-increasing group， 86.5% in the low-stable group， and 5.2% in the elevated-decreasing group. Notably， participants in the elevated-decreasing group had lighter skin tones， with trajectory patterns consistent across different skin colors. The EC skin test is safe， and redness diameter is a more reliable indicator than induration. Results should be collected within 48 to 72 hours， with verification at 72 hours crucial if initial results are negative. Importantly， skin color does not affect EC skin test outcomes.

 

EC交融抗原在外籍留学生中会诊结核遮盖感染的应用价值商讨 — 中国江苏省南京市，2023年9月

卢鹏1，2*；王荣3*；许晶晶2；王建明2；杜芳芳4；王国志5；成诗明4#；竺丽梅1#

 

1江苏省疾病防护约束中心慢性传染病防制所，南京市，江苏省，中国；

2南京医科大学专家卫生学院，南京市，江苏省，中国；

3南京市疾病防护约束中心，南京市，江苏省，中国；

4中国防痨协会，北京，中国；

5国度食物药品监督处理局，北京，中国。

*共同第一作家。

#通信作家：竺丽梅，lilyam0921@163.com；成诗明，smcheng@163.com。

 

ESAT6-CFP10 (EC) 皮肤测试是一种新式的皮肤窥察，已被世界卫生组织保举用于会诊结核分枝杆菌遮盖感染。然而，现在尚无对于该皮肤窥察在不同肤色的外籍东谈主群中的会诊价值商讨。本商讨是在南京医科大学进行，商讨对象为插足南京医科大学更生入学筛查的外籍学生。通过EC皮肤窥察评估外籍更生结核遮盖感染情况。分裂在打针后24、48、72和96小时测量EC皮肤窥察反映的硬结和红晕直径。商讨共纳入96名外籍更生。打针后24、48、72和96小时的结核分枝杆菌感染率分裂为3.13%、7.29%、13.54%和9.38%。与肤色较浅的外籍学生比较，深色皮肤外籍学生的感染率较低，但互异并无统计学道理（P=0.186）。轨迹分析流露，5.3%的参与者属于抓续高潮组，86.5%属于低踏实组，5.2%属于先升高后着落组。值得戒备的是，先升高后着落组的外籍更生多肤色较浅，且不同肤色间EC反映的轨迹趋势一致。在外籍东谈主群结核遮盖感染筛查中，EC皮肤窥察是安全的，EC反映的红晕直径大于硬结直径。应在EC打针后48至72小时检察EC反映扫尾，尤其是在48小时扫尾为阴性时，应在72小时进行复看扫尾。同期，肤色不会影响EC皮肤窥察的扫尾。

For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2024.191

 

 

The Implications of Artificial Intelligence on Infection Prevention and Control: Current Progress and Future Perspectives

Lin Yang1， Shuya Lu1， Lei Zhou2#

1. School of Nursing， The Hong Kong Polytechnic University， Hong Kong SAR， China;

2. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Beijing， China.

# Corresponding author: Lei Zhou， zhoulei@chinacdc.cn.

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly impacted infection prevention and control， particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. AI techniques have enhanced disease surveillance， outbreak prediction， contact tracing， diagnosis， treatment， and pandemic response. Notable applications include the BlueDot AI system for forecasting infectious diseases， Bluetooth technology for contact tracing， AI-powered image analysis for diagnosing COVID-19 and other diseases， and the AlphaFold algorithm for decoding protein structures. AI has also been utilized for epidemic forecasting， resource management， and disseminating reliable information. However， the growing application of AI raises ethical and safety concerns related to data privacy， bias， equity， and the spread of misinformation. Addressing these challenges requires international collaboration， strict regulations， ethical oversight， and improved public information literacy to maximize the benefits of AI while mitigating associated risks.

 

东谈主工智能在传染病防控中的应用：面前进展和将来瞻望

杨琳1；卢姝亚1；周蕾2#

1. 香港理工大学照拂学院，香港相配行政区，中国；

2. 中国疾病防护约束中心，北京，中国。

#通信作家：周蕾， zhoulei@chinacdc.cn。

 

东谈主工智能（AI）对传染病防控尤其在新冠大流行时间产生了紧要影响。东谈主工智能手艺提高了疾病监测、暴发预测、密接跟踪、疾病会诊、临床诊治以及大流行应付等方面的智商，一些新兴手艺和应用软件也应时而生，如用于疫情预测的BlueDot东谈主工智能系统、用于密接跟踪的蓝牙手艺、用于新冠等疾病会诊的东谈主工智能图像分析系统、以及用于解码卵白质结构的AlphaFold算法等。东谈主工智能还被用于疫情预测、资源处理和信息传播。然而，东谈主工智能应用的日益增长同期激发了东谈主们对数据秘籍、信息偏倚、自制性和信息误传等关系的谈德和安全问题的担忧。应付这些挑战，需要从国外配合、严格监管、谈德监督以及提高专乡信息教诲等方面入辖下手，以最大适度地弘扬东谈主工智能的上风，同期镌汰关系风险。

For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2024.192